Saturday, 20 September 2014

Possible Islamic state strategies in the face of Anti-IS coalitions

From group to staten , state to Caliphate  and extortion to oil fields Now controlling large swath of territory in northern Iraq and eastern Syria.  some call it ISIL(Islamic state of Iraq and levant) ,  Anti-IS groups call it DAESH which is Arabic Acronym for (Dulat al islamia Iraq wa sham) and Al-qaida call them Tanzeem daulah (The group Islamic state) . But now Its  Islamic state as Group declared caliphate on 29 June 2014 in its captive territories in both Syria and Iraq . when islamic state Advanced to iraqi kurdistan and taken over  predominantly Yazidi Town Sinjar on 3 August 2014  is in northwestern Iraq Ninawa Governorate From Peshmerga Kurdish Forces . most of yazidis  were displaced to mount Sinjar Near the syrian border  as refugees  .  claims they were Trapped by Islamic state fighters.  After yazidis turmoil  US weighs operation to Aid yazidis and Bombed purported  Islamic state position .on  August 19, 2014, Islamic state uploaded James Foley American Freelancer journalist Beheading  video to youtube entitled "A Message to America" In the Revenge of USA bombing on their Position. After that  Obama announced 6 point plan to eradicate  Islamic state . Islamic State has gone underground in syria even in its  stronghold raqqa governorate And iraq second largest city Mosul.  I am expecting  as  US-lead coalitions will intensify its Attack the Islamic state will withdraw from territories which are not their stronghold and Definitely will remain Underground  strongly in their strongholds since 2007 as Anbar ,Diyala , Nineveh , northern Baghdad and some parts of salahudeen. Also high chance of internal feud within other ani-government  groups .  I am expecting they will halt all of  their major operation and will wait for US-lead anti Islamic state coalition to end their war on Islamic state . During that time  Islamic state will change its war tactics from as Regular army to gorilla warfare like blowing up key bridges and  sabotage operation inside capital Baghdad with help of Activated sleeper cells and mini-ops all over regions. In Syria there will not be major changes in their warfare tactics because they are controlling predominantly sunni territories  they will halt their operation against FSA and Kurdish militias  but  will continue against Assad regime .       

Haris Ni                                                                                   9/20/2014

No comments:

Post a Comment